Evolution and neutralization escape of the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 subvariant (preprint)

Omicron BA.2.86 subvariant differs from Omicron BA.2 as well as recently circulating variants by over 30 mutations in the spike protein alone. Here we report on the first isolation of the live BA.2.86 subvariant from a diagnostic swab collected in South Africa which we tested for escape from neutralizing antibodies and viral replication properties in cell culture. BA.2.86 did not have significantly more escape than Omicron XBB.1.5 from neutralizing immunity elicited by infection of Omicron subvariants ranging from BA.1 to XBB, either by infection alone or as breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Neutralization escape was present relative to earlier strains: BA.2.86 showed extensive escape both relative to ancestral virus in sera from pre-Omicron vaccinated individuals and relative to Omicron BA.1 in sera from Omicron BA.1 infected individuals. We did not observe substantial differences in viral properties in cell culture relative to XBB.1.5. Both BA.2.86 and XBB.1.5 produced infection foci of similar size, had similar cytopathic effect (both lower than ancestral SARS-CoV-2), and had similar replication dynamics. We also investigated the relationship of BA.2.86 to BA.2 sequences and found that the closest were BA.2 samples from Southern Africa circulating in early 2022. These observations suggest that BA.2.86 is more closely related to sequences from Southern Africa than other regions and so may have evolved there, and that evolution led to escape from neutralizing antibodies similar in scale to recently circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2.

Fitness effects of mutations to SARS-CoV-2 proteins (preprint)

Knowledge of the fitness effects of mutations to SARS-CoV-2 can inform assessment of new variants, design of therapeutics resistant to escape, and understanding of the functions of viral proteins. However, experimentally measuring effects of mutations is challenging: we lack tractable lab assays for many SARS-CoV-2 proteins, and comprehensive deep mutational scanning has been applied to only two SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Here we develop an approach that leverages millions of publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequences to estimate effects of mutations. We first calculate how many independent occurrences of each mutation are expected to be observed along the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny in the absence of selection. We then compare these expected observations to the actual observations to estimate the effect of each mutation. These estimates correlate well with deep mutational scanning measurements. For most genes, synonymous mutations are nearly neutral, stop-codon mutations are deleterious, and amino-acid mutations have a range of effects. However, some viral accessory proteins are under little to no selection. We provide interactive visualizations of effects of mutations to all SARS-CoV-2 proteins (https://jbloomlab.github.io/SARS2-mut-fitness). The framework we describe is applicable to any virus for which the number of available sequences is sufficiently large that many independent occurrences of each neutral mutation are observed.

Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 mutational spectrum (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 evolves rapidly in part because of its high mutation rate. Here we examine whether this mutational process itself has changed during viral evolution. To do this, we quantify the relative rates of different types of single nucleotide mutations at four-fold degenerate sites in the viral genome across millions of human SARS-CoV-2 sequences. We find clear shifts in the relative rates of several types of mutations during SARS-CoV-2 evolution. The most striking trend is a roughly two-fold decrease in the relative rate of G[->]T mutations in Omicron versus early clades, as was recently noted by Ruis et al (2022). There is also a decrease in the relative rate of C[->]T mutations in Delta, and other subtle changes in the mutation spectrum along the phylogeny. We speculate that these changes in the mutation spectrum could arise from viral mutations that affect genome replication, packaging, and antagonization of host innate-immune factors--although environmental factors could also play a role. Interestingly, the mutation spectrum of Omicron is more similar than that of earlier SARS-CoV-2 clades to the spectrum that shaped the long-term evolution of sarbecoviruses. Overall, our work shows that the mutation process is itself a dynamic variable during SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and suggests that human SARS-CoV-2 may be trending towards a mutation spectrum more similar to that of other animal sarbecoviruses.

A pseudovirus system enables deep mutational scanning of the full SARS-CoV-2 spike (preprint)

A major challenge in understanding SARS-CoV-2 evolution is interpreting the antigenic and functional effects of emerging mutations in the viral spike protein. Here we describe a new deep mutational scanning platform based on non-replicative pseudotyped lentiviruses that directly quantifies how large numbers of spike mutations impact antibody neutralization and pseudovirus infection. We demonstrate this new platform by making libraries of the Omicron BA.1 and Delta spikes. These libraries each contain ~7000 distinct amino-acid mutations in the context of up to ~135,000 unique mutation combinations. We use these libraries to map escape mutations from neutralizing antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S2 subunit of spike. Overall, this work establishes a high-throughput and safe approach to measure how ~'10 to the 5' combinations of mutations affect antibody neutralization and spike-mediated infection. Notably, the platform described here can be extended to the entry proteins of many other viruses.

Contributions of adaptation and purifying selection to SARS-CoV-2 evolution (preprint)

Continued evolution and adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 has lead to more transmissible and immune-evasive variants with profound impact on the course of the pandemic. Here I analyze the evolution of the virus over 2.5 years since its emergence and estimate rates of evolution for synonymous and non-synonymous changes separately for evolution within clades -- well defined mono-phyletic groups with gradual evolution -- and for the pandemic overall. The rate of synonymous mutations is found to be around 6 changes per year. Synonymous rates within variants vary little from variant to variant and are compatible with the overall rate. In contrast, the rate at which variants accumulate amino acid changes (non-synonymous mutation) was initially around 12-16 changes per year, but in 2021 and 2022 dropped to 6-9 changes per year. The overall rate of non-synonymous evolution, that is across variants, is estimated to be about 25 amino acid changes per year. This 2-fold higher rate indicates that the evolutionary process that gave rise to the different variants is qualitatively different from that in typical transmission chains and likely dominated by adaptive evolution. I further quantify the spectrum of mutations and purifying selection in different SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Many accessory proteins evolve under limited evolutionary constraint with little short term purifying selection. About half of the mutations in other proteins are strongly deleterious and rarely observed, not even at low frequency.

Swiss public health measures associated with reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission using genome data (preprint)

Genome sequences allow quantification of changes in case introductions from abroad and local transmission dynamics. We sequenced 11,357 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Switzerland in 2020 - the 6th largest effort globally. Using these data, we estimated introductions and their persistence throughout 2020. By contrasting estimates with null models, we estimate at least 83% of introductions were adverted during Switzerland's border closures. Further, transmission chain persistence roughly doubled after the partial lockdown was lifted. Then, using a novel phylodynamic method, we suggest transmission in newly introduced outbreaks slowed 36 - 64% upon outbreak detection in summer 2020, but not in fall. This could indicate successful contact tracing over summer before overburdening in fall. The study highlights the added value of genome sequencing data for understanding transmission dynamics.

PCR assay to enhance global surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (preprint)

With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that may increase transmissibility and/or cause escape from immune responses1-3, there is an urgent need for the targeted surveillance of circulating lineages. It was found that the B.1.1.7 (also 501Y.V1) variant first detected in the UK4,5 could be serendipitously detected by the ThermoFisher TaqPath COVID-19 PCR assay because a key deletion in these viruses, spike {Delta}69-70, would cause a 'spike gene target failure' (SGTF) result. However, a SGTF result is not definitive for B.1.1.7, and this assay cannot detect other variants of concern that lack spike {Delta}69-70, such as B.1.351 (also 501Y.V2) detected in South Africa6 and P.1 (also 501Y.V3) recently detected in Brazil7. We identified a deletion in the ORF1a gene (ORF1a {Delta}3675-3677) in all three variants, which has not yet been widely detected in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Using ORF1a {Delta}3675-3677 as the primary target and spike {Delta}69-70 to differentiate, we designed and validated an open source PCR assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern8. Our assay can be rapidly deployed in laboratories around the world to enhance surveillance for the local emergence spread of B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.

Estimation and worldwide monitoring of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The effective reproductive number Re is a key indicator of the growth of an epidemic. Since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic started, many methods and online dashboards have sprung up to monitor this number. However, these methods are not always thoroughly tested or are applied only to a limited geographic range. Here, we present a method for near real time monitoring of Re, applied to epidemic data from 170 countries. We thoroughly validate the method on simulated data, and present an intuitive web interface for interactive data exploration. We show that in the majority of countries the estimated Re dropped below 1 only after the introduction of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For Europe, Asia, and North America we found that the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions was associated with reductions in the effective reproductive number. Globally, we found that relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions did not fully revert Re values to their original levels. Generally, our framework is useful both to inform governments and the general public on the status of the epidemic in their country, as well as a source for detailed comparison between countries and in relation to local public health policies and external covariates such as mobility, behavioural, or weather data.

Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020 (preprint)

A variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in early summer 2020, presumably in Spain, and has since spread to multiple European countries. The variant was first observed in Spain in June and has been at frequencies above 40% since July. Outside of Spain, the frequency of this variant has increased from very low values prior to 15th July to 40-70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom in September. It is also prevalent in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands, and France. Little can be said about other European countries because few recent sequences are available. Sequences in this cluster (20A.EU1) differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions, including the mutation A222V in the spike protein and A220V in the nucleoprotein. We show that this variant was exported from Spain to other European countries multiple times and that much of the diversity of this cluster in Spain is observed across Europe. It is currently unclear whether this variant is spreading because of a transmission advantage of the virus or whether high incidence in Spain followed by dissemination through tourists is sufficient to explain the rapid rise in multiple countries.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 spread in Switzerland based on genomic sequencing data (preprint)

Pathogen genomes provide insights into their evolution and epidemic spread. We sequenced 1,439 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Switzerland, representing 3-7% of all confirmed cases per week. Using these data, we demonstrate that no one lineage became dominant, pointing against evolution towards general lower virulence. On an epidemiological level, we report no evidence of cryptic transmission before the first confirmed case. We find many early viral introductions from Germany, France, and Italy and many recent introductions from Germany and France. Over the summer, we quantify the number of non-traceable infections stemming from introductions, quantify the effective reproductive number, and estimate the degree of undersampling. Our framework can be applied to quantify evolution and epidemiology in other locations or for other pathogens based on genomic data.

SARS-CoV-2 viroporin triggers the NLRP3 inflammatory pathway (preprint)

Cytokine storm resulting from a heightened inflammatory response is a prominent feature of severe COVID-19 disease. This inflammatory response results from assembly/activation of a cell-intrinsic defense platform known as the inflammasome. We report that the SARS-CoV-2 viroporin encoded by ORF3a activates the NLRP3 inflammasome, the most promiscuous of known inflammasomes. ORF3a triggers IL-1 beta expression via NFkB, thus priming the inflammasome while also activating it via ASC-dependent and -independent modes. ORF3a-mediated inflammasome activation requires efflux of potassium ions and oligomerization between NEK7 and NLRP3. With the selective NLRP3 inhibitor MCC950 able to block ORF3a-mediated inflammasome activation and key ORF3a residues needed for virus release and inflammasome activation conserved in SARS-CoV-2 isolates across continents, ORF3a and NLRP3 present prime targets for intervention.

Genetic determinants of COVID-19 drug efficacy revealed by genome-wide CRISPR screens (preprint)

Immunomodulatory agents dexamethasone and colchicine, antiviral drugs remdesivir, favipiravir and ribavirin, as well as antimalarial drugs chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine are currently used in the combat against COVID-19. However, whether some of these drugs have clinical efficacy for COVID-19 is under debate. Moreover, these drugs are applied in COVID-19 patients with little knowledge of genetic biomarkers, which will hurt patient outcome. To answer these questions, we designed a screen approach that could employ genome-wide sgRNA libraries to systematically uncover genes crucial for these drugs' action. Here we present our findings, including genes crucial for the import, export, metabolic activation and inactivation of remdesivir, as well as genes that regulate colchicine and dexamethasone's immunosuppressive effects. Our findings provide preliminary information for developing urgently needed genetic biomarkers for these drugs. Such biomarkers will help better interpret COVID-19 clinical trial data and point to how to stratify COVID-19 patients for proper treatment with these drugs.

SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G variant confers enhanced replication and transmissibility (preprint)

During the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in humans a D614G substitution in the spike (S) protein emerged and became the predominant circulating variant (S-614G) of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, whether the increasing prevalence of the S-614G variant represents a fitness advantage that improves replication and/or transmission in humans or is merely due to founder effects remains elusive. Here, we generated isogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants and demonstrate that the S-614G variant has (i) enhanced binding to human ACE2, (ii) increased replication in primary human bronchial and nasal airway epithelial cultures as well as in a novel human ACE2 knock-in mouse model, and (iii) markedly increased replication and transmissibility in hamster and ferret models of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Collectively, our data show that while the S-614G substitution results in subtle increases in binding and replication in vitro, it provides a real competitive advantage in vivo, particularly during the transmission bottle neck, providing an explanation for the global predominance of S-614G variant among the SARS-CoV-2 viruses currently circulating.

Remdesivir Metabolite GS-441524 Efficiently Inhibits SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mouse Model (preprint)

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads across worldwide and becomes a global pandemic. Remdesivir is the only COVID-19 treatment approved by U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); however, its effectiveness is still under questioning as raised by the results of a large WHO Solidarity Trial. Herein, we report that the parent nucleotide of remdesivir, GS-441524, potently inhibits the replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Vero E6 and other cells. It exhibits good plasma distribution and longer half-life (t1/2=4.8h) in rat PK study. GS-441524 is highly efficacious against SARS-CoV-2 in AAV-hACE2 transduced mice and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) in mice, reducing the viral titers in CoV-attacked organs, without noticeable toxicity. Given that GS-441524 was the predominant metabolite of remdesivir in the plasma, the anti-COVID-19 effect of remdesivir may partly come from the effect of GS-441524. Our results also supported that GS-441524 as a promising and inexpensive drug candidate in the treatment of COVID-19 and future emerging CoVs diseases.

Binding Mode of SARS-CoV2 Fusion Peptide to Human Cellular Membrane (preprint)

Infection of human cells by the SARS-CoV2 relies on its binding to a specific receptor and subsequent fusion of the viral and host cell membranes. The fusion peptide (FP), a short peptide segment in the spike protein, plays a central role in the initial penetration of the virus into the host cell membrane, followed by the fusion of the two membranes. Here, we use an array of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations taking advantage of the Highly Mobile Membrane Mimetic (HMMM) model, to investigate the interaction of the SARS-CoV2 FP with a lipid bilayer representing mammalian cellular membranes at an atomic level, and to characterize the membrane-bound form of the peptide. Six independent systems were generated by changing the initial positioning and orientation of the FP with respect to the membrane, and each system was simulated in five independent replicas. In 60% of the simulations, the FP reaches a stable, membrane-bound configuration where the peptide deeply penetrated into the membrane. Clustering of the results reveals two major membrane binding modes, the helix-binding mode and the loop-binding mode. Taken into account the sequence conservation among the viral FPs and the results of mutagenesis studies establishing the role of specific residues in the helical portion of the FP in membrane association, we propose that the helix-binding mode represents more closely the biologically relevant form. In the helix-binding mode, the helix is stabilized in an oblique angle with respect to the membrane with its N-terminus tilted towards the membrane core. Analysis of the FP-lipid interactions shows the involvement of specific residues of the helix in membrane binding previously described as the fusion active core residues. Taken together, the results shed light on a key step involved in SARS-CoV2 infection with potential implications in designing novel inhibitors.

Positive outcomes of COVID-19 research-related gender policy changes (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed and exacerbated gender biases in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine. Accumulating evidence suggests that female scientists' productivity dropped during the initial lockdown period. With more time being spent on caregiving responsibilities, women may be struggling to collaborate on grant applications and launch new experiments. Scientists with disabilities or who belong to Indigenous nations or communities of color may have less time to devote to research due to health, family, or community needs. Collateral damage in this situation, the appropriate integration of sex, gender, and other identity characteristics in research content may also suffer. Sex and gender are better attended to when female scientists form part of the research team. Research funding agencies have a role to play in mitigating these effects by putting in place gender equity policies that support all applicants and ensure research quality. Accordingly, a national health research funder implemented gender policy changes that included extending deadlines and factoring sex and gender into COVID-19 grant requirements. Following these changes, the funder received more applications from female scientists, awarded a greater proportion of grants to female compared to male scientists, and received and funded more grant applications that considered sex and gender in the content of COVID-19 research. Whether or not these strategies will be sufficient in the long-term to prevent widening of the gender gap in science, technology, engineering, mathematics and medicine requires continued monitoring and oversight. Further work is urgently required to mitigate inequities associated with identity characteristics beyond gender.

Origin of imported SARS-CoV-2 strains in The Gambia identified from whole genome sequences (preprint)

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a positive-sense single stranded RNA virus with high human transmissibility. This study generated Whole Genome data to determine the origin and pattern of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from the first six cases tested in The Gambia. Total RNA from SARS-CoV-2 was extracted from inactivated nasopharyngeal-oropharyngeal swabs of six cases and converted to cDNA following the ARTIC COVID-19 sequencing protocol. Libraries were constructed with the NEBNext ultra II DNA library prep kit for Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Ligation sequencing kit and sequenced on Illumina MiSeq and Nanopore GridION, respectively. Sequencing reads were mapped to the Wuhan reference genome and compared to eleven other SARS-CoV-2 strains of Asian, European and American origins. A phylogenetic tree was constructed with the consensus genomes for local and non-African strains. Three of the Gambian strains had a European origin (UK and Spain), two strains were of Asian origin (Japan). In The Gambia, Nanopore and Illumina sequencers were successfully used to identify the sources of SARS-CoV-2 infection in COVID-19 cases.

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020 (preprint)

ObjectivesThe four seasonal coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 are frequent causes of respiratory infections and show annual and seasonal variation. Increased understanding about these patterns could be informative about the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. MethodsResults from PCR diagnostics for the seasonal coronaviruses, and other respiratory viruses, were obtained for 55,190 clinical samples analysed at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, between 14 September 2009 and 2 April 2020. ResultsSeasonal coronaviruses were detected in 2,130 samples (3.9%) and constituted 8.1% of all virus detections. OC43 was most commonly detected (28.4% of detections), followed by NL63 (24.0%), HKU1 (17.6%), and 229E (15.3%). The overall fraction of positive samples was similar between seasons, but at species level there were distinct biennial alternating peak seasons for the Alphacoronaviruses, 229E and NL63, and the Betacoronaviruses, OC43 and HKU1, respectively. The Betacoronaviruses peaked earlier in the winter season (Dec-Jan) than the Alphacoronaviruses (Feb-Mar). Coronaviruses were detected across all ages, but diagnostics were more frequently requested for paediatric patients than adults and the elderly. OC43 and 229E incidence was relatively constant across age strata, while that of NL63 and HKU1 decreased with age. ConclusionsBoth the Alphacoronaviruses and Betacoronaviruses showed alternating biennial winter incidence peaks, which suggests some type of immune mediated interaction. Symptomatic reinfections in adults and the elderly appear relatively common. Both findings may be of relevance for the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (preprint)

Following its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread throughout the world. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 strains allows for the reconstruction of transmission history connecting these infections. Here, we analyze 346 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from samples collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington State, USA. We found that the large majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time frame appeared to have derived from a single introduction event into the state in late January or early February 2020 and subsequent local spread, strongly suggesting cryptic spread of COVID-19 during the months of January and February 2020, before active community surveillance was implemented. We estimate a common ancestor of this outbreak clade as occurring between 18 January and 9 February 2020. From genomic data, we estimate an exponential doubling between 2.4 and 5.1 days. These results highlight the need for large-scale community surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 introductions and spread and the power of pathogen genomics to inform epidemiological understanding.